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Emmer, House GOP see majority in reach for 2022

'Loftier expectations' subsequently political party crush expectations this twelvemonth

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer says Republicans are already targeting Democrats who won narrowly on Election Day. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer says Republicans are already targeting Democrats who won narrowly on Ballot Solar day. (Neb Clark/CQ Scroll Call file photo)

Posted November 13, 2020 at two:25pm

Rep. Tom Emmer, the Minnesota Republican who chaired his party's House campaign arm this election cycle, sees a GOP majority coming into view in 2022.

Emmer, who is expected to reprise his role equally chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee for the coming election cycle, already has his sights assault districts where Democrats just barely kept their seats on Ballot Day. Republicans have history on their side too: The party out of ability in the executive branch typically picks upwards seats in midterm elections.

And with Democrats' majority in the 117th Congress likely to be razor-slim, Republicans will probably need a cyberspace gain in the unmarried digits to retake the gavels in ii years.

"Nosotros're going to have high expectations," Emmer told CQ Roll Call in an interview Friday. "Nosotros are going to come across those expectations by winning dorsum the majority."

Subsequently an Election Mean solar day that did not meet their party's expectations of picking up seats in the House and winning a majority in the Senate, Democrats have begun to do some soul-searching. That internal inspection has publicly exposed divides, particularly between members in more GOP-leaning districts and those in deep-blueish seats who want action on a assuming, left-wing agenda.

It's the Democrats in Republican-leaning districts whom Emmer sees every bit increasingly vulnerable heading into the 2022 cycle. And so far, no House GOP incumbents have lost, although some races have non all the same been called.

Emmer said the committee's top targets next cycle include Democrats who won reelection by slim margins, pointing specifically to districts in Michigan, Virginia, Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa and Texas. Aside from Texas, those states include Democrats who flipped GOP-held seats in 2018 in districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016. And so far, 21 of the xxx Democrats in and then-called Trump districts have won reelection.

Turning out Trump voters

Fifty-fifty though Trump will not exist on the ballot in 2022, Emmer was confident the president's supporters would turn out to vote in ii years despite staying at abode in 2018. Emmer signaled that, with Joe Biden in the White House, Republicans would be motivated to head to the polls.

"2018 was a check on executive ability," Emmer said. "That's the issue that Democrats are going to be faced with in two years."

"The party that doesn't have the White House is extraordinarily energized to come out and vote against the executive moving towards $4 trillion in revenue enhancement hikes and the Green New Deal and a cashless bail and trying to federalize our elections subsequently what we've seen in this election process," Emmer said. "I think that's simply going to serve to energize people."

Democrats have not even so selected the leader of their House entrada arm, the Democratic Congressional Entrada Committee. They volition do then next week, likely picking between California Rep. Tony Cárdenas and New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. But Speaker Nancy Pelosi struck an optimistic tone Fri nearly her party's chances in 2022, after spending time speaking with Firm Democrats who lost their races.

"I have pages — in fact, books — of notes nearly how they saw what happened in their districts and how they see how we go forward," she said.

"Nosotros are getting gear up already for the next fourth dimension," she added. "A number of our candidates have already said they're going to run again. I'm non going to make whatsoever announcements for anybody, just a number of them told me that they're gear up, they dearest beingness in Congress, they were proud to have won [in 2018] and they were proud of the campaign that they made."

Ane freshman member from Pelosi's home state of California, Harley Rouda, said he would run again in 2022 in the statement conceding his loss to Republican Michelle Steel.

'Formula for success'

Emmer said Republicans had plant "the formula for success" in 2020.

"It starts with great candidates," Emmer said. "It'south got to be the correct message, and it's nigh having plenty resources on the Republican side. We understand we're never going to have their resources, just clearly we had enough."

When it comes to recruiting candidates, Emmer said he plans to replicate the approach the commission used in 2020 by engaging state delegations. It's not nonetheless clear who will replace retiring Indiana Rep. Susan A. Brooks as NRCC recruitment chair, but Emmer said he has had "several members who accept expressed involvement."

Emmer noted the variety of the incoming GOP freshmen. Of the nine seats the GOP has flipped so far, eight of them were with Republican women. That doesn't include New York'southward 11th District since The Associated Printing has non called the race, but Autonomous Rep. Max Rose conceded to GOP Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis on Thursday.

Primaries have proved to be an obstacle for GOP women in the by. Emmer stressed that the NRCC will keep its policy of non taking sides in primaries, but he noted that individual lawmakers can exercise so.

For Emmer, the "formula for success" as well includes railing confronting a political party that he says is embracing socialism, and he plans to continue to stress that message going into the 2022 bicycle. Emmer said a Democratic colleague told him two years ago that just a small number of Democrats are calling for socialism and those members have "oversized voices."

Emmer said he replied, "Well that may be the example, but if yous're not willing to stand up, speak up and fight to take my grandpa's Democrat Party back, I'grand going to brand sure y'all ain it."

Lindsey McPherson contributed to this report.